From: <Saved by Microsoft Internet Explorer 5>
Subject: Economist.com
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2002 14:52:37 -0700
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      face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color=3D#cc0033 =
size=3D-1><B>SURVEY:=20
      THE WORLD ECONOMY</B></FONT><BR><BR><FONT=20
      face=3D"verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif" size=3D+1><B>A =
necessary=20
      evil</B><BR></FONT><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif"=20
      color=3D#999999 size=3D-2>
      <DIV>Sep 26th 2002 <BR>From The Economist print=20
      edition</DIV></FONT><BR><BR>
      <TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 width=3D350 align=3Dcenter =
border=3D0>
        <TBODY>
        <TR>
          <TD vAlign=3Dtop>
            <TABLE cellSpacing=3D2 cellPadding=3D0 align=3Dright =
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              <TR>
                <TD vAlign=3Dtop align=3Dright><FONT=20
                  face=3D"Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color=3D#999999=20
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        <TR>
          <TD vAlign=3Dbottom><IMG height=3D194 alt=3D""=20
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width=3D350=20
            border=3D0></TD></TR>
        <TR>
          <TD vAlign=3Dtop>
            <P><FONT face=3D"Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"=20
            size=3D-1><B></B></FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR =
clear=3Dall><FONT=20
      face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1><B>Should we =
learn to love=20
      recessions? </B></FONT><BR><!--back-->
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>WHEN =
America's=20
      bubble burst last year, the Fed swiftly cut interest rates. This =
has=20
      become a habit: every time there has been any financial turmoil at =
home or=20
      abroad=97such as the crises in East Asia and Russia and the =
near-collapse of=20
      Long Term Capital Management in 1998=97the Fed has pumped more =
money into=20
      the economy. Low interest rates have saved America from a deep =
recession.=20
      But after such a binge, might the economy not benefit from a cold=20
      shower?</FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Most =
people would=20
      consider this a heretical question. They assume that it is a =
central=20
      bank's job to avoid recessions at all cost. According to one =
survey,=20
      four-fifths of Americans believe that preventing recessions is as=20
      important as preventing drug abuse. But are recessions always an=20
      unmitigated disaster, or do they also offer some economic =
benefits? And if=20
      central banks respond to every danger sign by pumping in more =
money, does=20
      this not risk simply transferring the problem elsewhere? As =
America's=20
      stockmarket bubble has burst, another bubble now seems to be =
inflating in=20
      its housing market. This allows consumers to go on partying, but =
what=20
      happens when the drink runs out?</FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" =
size=3D-1>According to the=20
      Austrian economic paradigm described in the second section of this =
survey,=20
      recessions are a natural feature of an economy. Joseph Schumpeter =
argued=20
      that recessions are not an evil that should be avoided, but a =
necessary=20
      adjustment to change. Only by allowing the =93winds of creative =
destruction=94=20
      to blow freely could capital be released from dying firms to new =
sectors=20
      of the economy, thereby boosting future productivity. </FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Hayek =
counselled=20
      against massive monetary easing to prevent a recession. If =
unprofitable=20
      investments were made during a boom, then it was better to shut =
those=20
      firms down and clear the way for new, more productive investment. =
For the=20
      Austrian economists the policy choice is not between recession or =
no=20
      recession, but between one now or an even nastier one later. A =
recession=20
      is necessary to work off an imbalance between too much investment =
and too=20
      little saving. </FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" =
size=3D-1>Keynes, quite=20
      reasonably, ridiculed the idea that in the long run the Great =
Depression=20
      might turn out to have been a good thing. In the early 1930s the =
Fed and=20
      the American Treasury did not pursue expansionary policies, =
precisely=20
      because they thought these might hinder the necessary adjustment. =
Andrew=20
      Mellon, the secretary of the Treasury, urged the market to =
=93liquidate=20
      labour, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, and liquidate =
real=20
      estate...It will purge the rottenness out of the system.=94 =
America's output=20
      duly fell by 30% as the Fed sat on its hands. </FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Today, =
a slump on=20
      that scale would be unlikely even if the Fed had not cut interest =
rates=20
      swiftly. It would have been headed off by a variety of changes =
made since=20
      the Great Depression: higher government spending and hence more =
powerful=20
      automatic fiscal stabilisers; bank deposit insurance; and a =
stronger=20
      commitment by the Fed to its role of lender of last resort. But =
even the=20
      Austrian economists themselves came to reject the idea that faced =
with a=20
      potentially severe recession, policymakers should do nothing. They =

      approved of stimulus measures to stop recessions from turning into =
deep=20
      depressions, but not of preventing recessions altogether. =
</FONT></P><BR=20
      clear=3Dall>
      <DIV><FONT face=3D"verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><B><A=20
      name=3Dthe_case_for_the_defence>The case for the=20
defence</A></B></FONT></DIV>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Why is =
economic=20
      instability always assumed to be bad? Some economists argue that=20
      recessions result in a permanent loss of output. This rests on the =
notion=20
      that there is a fixed ceiling for output, rising over time, so any =

      shortfall against potential is a permanent loss. On this view,=20
      demand-management policies can fill in the troughs without shaving =
off the=20
      peaks, thus increasing average growth. </FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>A more =
realistic=20
      way of looking at it, however, is that business cycles are =
fluctuations in=20
      output above and below an equilibrium trend. This suggests that=20
      demand-management policies can mitigate recessions only to the =
extent that=20
      they also choke off expansions; they cannot increase the average =
rate of=20
      growth or employment. Admittedly, cyclical increases in =
unemployment may=20
      become permanent if labour-market rigidities, such as strict=20
      hiring-and-firing laws, make it hard for the jobless to find work =
even=20
      when the economy recovers, a condition known as hysteresis. If =
this is=20
      present, as it is in many European countries, then recessions can =
have a=20
      permanent cost. But this is really an argument for labour-market =
reform to=20
      minimise the cost of recessions, not one for measures to prevent =
them=20
      altogether.</FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>A =
second argument=20
      against letting recessions rip is that households may value =
economic=20
      stability for its own sake, even if it makes no difference to the =
average=20
      unemployment rate. Justin Wolfers, an economist at Stanford =
University,=20
      has used surveys of consumer satisfaction from several rich =
economies to=20
      estimate the value that households place on stability. He reckons =
that=20
      starting from current levels of volatility, eliminating the =
business cycle=20
      would increase average well-being by the equivalent of a fall in =
the=20
      unemployment rate of only 0.2 percentage points. By contrast,=20
      labour-market reforms could reduce unemployment by several =
percentage=20
      points.</FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>A =
third common=20
      claim is that economic instability and uncertainty may discourage=20
      investment, thereby reducing long-term growth. Yet the evidence is =
weak.=20
      More volatile economies do not appear to invest less as a share of =
<FONT=20
      size=3D-1>GDP</FONT>. Moreover, looking back, the 20 years to 1938 =
were by=20
      far the most volatile in economic history, yet the average growth =
rate in=20
      developed economies was 3.8%, well above the average growth of =
2.7% during=20
      the past two decades of relative stability. An analysis of 20 =
developed=20
      economies since 1960 by Bill Martin of <FONT size=3D-1>UBS</FONT> =
Global=20
      Asset Management finds little evidence that macroeconomic =
stability=20
      promotes faster growth. If anything, he concludes, countries with =
greater=20
      output variability have enjoyed slightly faster growth in =
productivity.=20
      </FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>This =
is not as odd=20
      as it sounds. A perfectly stable economy would miss out on the =
advantages=20
      of booms as well as the alleged disadvantages of slumps. For =
instance, in=20
      boom times, when credit flows freely, it is easier to finance the =
risky=20
      innovations that may boost future productivity growth. Booms also=20
      encourage mergers and acquisitions, a powerful tool for =
restructuring.=20
      More important, as Schumpeter argued, recessions are a process of =
creative=20
      destruction in which inefficient firms are weeded out, releasing =
resources=20
      for more productive firms. </FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>But =
can we be sure=20
      that it will be the least productive firms that go bust in =
recessions, and=20
      that they really will be replaced by new, more profitable ones? =
Awkwardly,=20
      work by Ricardo Caballero and Mohamad Hammour, economists =
respectively at=20
      <FONT size=3D-1>MIT</FONT> and <FONT size=3D-1>DELTA, </FONT>a =
French research=20
      organisation, finds that good times may be more conducive to =
economic=20
      restructuring than bad. The two economists examined gross job =
creation and=20
      destruction in American manufacturing over the period 1972-93 and =
found=20
      that at the onset of a recession job destruction increases, but it =
then=20
      falls below normal levels until well into the recovery. Job =
creation=20
      declines during a recession and remains relatively low during the =
initial=20
      recovery. Adding up the net effect of job destruction and =
creation, Messrs=20
      Caballero and Hammour conclude that the pace of restructuring =
actually=20
      falls during a recession. </FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>The =
figures on=20
      which the study was based are available only for manufacturing, =
which has=20
      a shrinking share of the economy. Once services are added in, the =
picture=20
      might look different. Still, the study does raise the question of =
why=20
      recessions might hinder rather than help industrial restructuring. =
One=20
      answer is that credit markets are imperfect. When credit is tight =
in a=20
      recession, even profitable firms can find it harder to raise money =
to=20
      finance restructuring or new investment. </FONT></P><BR =
clear=3Dall>
      <DIV><FONT face=3D"verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"><B><A=20
      name=3Dthe_dark_side_of_the_boom>The dark side of the=20
      boom</A></B></FONT></DIV>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Even =
if recessions=20
      are not always the most efficient way to reallocate resources, =
they are=20
      necessary to purge the excesses of the previous boom. Stephen King =
at=20
      <FONT size=3D-1>HSBC</FONT> argues that a recession should be seen =
as an=20
      unpleasant cleansing experience which leaves the economy in a =
healthier=20
      state: =93A bit like taking a cold shower with a lump of carbolic =
soap.=94 But=20
      America's economy has not yet completed this cleansing process: it =
still=20
      has an inadequate savings rate, excessive debt and a huge =
current-account=20
      deficit. The recent mild recession did little to correct these =
imbalances,=20
      making further pain inevitable. </FONT></P>
      <TABLE cellSpacing=3D4 cellPadding=3D0 width=3D258 align=3Dright =
border=3D0>
        <TBODY>
        <TR>
          <TD vAlign=3Dtop>
            <TABLE cellSpacing=3D2 cellPadding=3D0 align=3Dright =
border=3D0>
              <TBODY>
              <TR>
                <TD vAlign=3Dtop align=3Dright><FONT=20
                  face=3D"Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color=3D#999999=20
                  size=3D-2></FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR>
        <TR>
          <TD vAlign=3Dbottom><IMG height=3D242 alt=3D""=20
            src=3D"http://www.economist.com/images/20020928/CSU359.gif" =
width=3D250=20
            border=3D0></TD></TR>
        <TR>
          <TD vAlign=3Dtop>
            <P><FONT face=3D"Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"=20
            size=3D-1><B></B></FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>A good =
indication=20
      of the size of the adjustment yet to be made is the private =
sector's=20
      financial balance (or private-sector net saving, equivalent to =
saving=20
      minus investment), a concept elaborated by Wynne Godley, an =
economist at=20
      Cambridge University. In the United States the private-sector =
balance=20
      shifted from a surplus of 5% of <FONT size=3D-1>GDP</FONT> in 1992 =
to a=20
      deficit of 5% of <FONT size=3D-1>GDP</FONT> in 2000 as households =
and firms=20
      went on a borrowing spree, an astonishing change after almost four =
decades=20
      when the private sector never ran a deficit at all (see chart 8).=20
      </FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>The =
corporate=20
      sector's financial position was not wildly out of line with =
previous=20
      periods of expansion: firms usually run a deficit during booms to =
finance=20
      investment. It was the behaviour of the personal sector that was=20
      exceptional, and remains so. The surge in share prices during the =
1990s=20
      encouraged households to save less and less. </FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>In the =
past, when=20
      a country's private-sector net saving has fallen so sharply, a =
deep=20
      recession or a prolonged period of stagnation has usually =
followed. Events=20
      in Japan, Britain and Sweden after their late 1980s booms are =
prime=20
      examples. Mr Godley has long argued that the same outcome is =
inevitable in=20
      the United States. But America's adjustment still has a long way =
to go.=20
      The private sector's financial deficit has narrowed to 1.4% of =
<FONT=20
      size=3D-1>GDP</FONT> this year, but that still leaves it well =
below its=20
      1960-95 average of a surplus of 3% of <FONT size=3D-1>GDP</FONT>.=20
</FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>So =
far, most of=20
      the belt-tightening has come from firms, which have slashed their=20
      investment and laid off workers. Consumers, on the other hand, =
have=20
      continued to borrow, encouraged by easy money and rising house =
prices. But=20
      the collapse in share prices is now likely to prompt households to =
save=20
      more of their income. If the household saving rate rises back to =
its=20
      long-term norm, at the very least a period of slow growth, and =
perhaps=20
      another recession, will surely follow.</FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Was it =
a mistake=20
      for the Fed to slash interest rates last year and thereby delay =
this=20
      adjustment by households? Some economists believe that a deep but =
short=20
      recession is preferable to a prolonged period of sluggish growth, =
because=20
      recovery comes much sooner, with less damage to the economy's =
potential=20
      growth rate. However, it is arguably better to unwind imbalances =
gradually=20
      to avoid the risk of severe financial problems. Moreover, the Fed =
has been=20
      worried that a deeper recession at a time when inflation is =
already so low=20
      might lead to debt deflation, which central banks should avoid =
like the=20
      plague.</FONT></P>
      <P><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-1>Lower =
interest=20
      rates have helped to prop up spending in America largely by =
fuelling a=20
      credit-driven boom in house prices. This fixes one problem at the =
risk of=20
      creating another. Rather than injecting more liquidity, would it =
not be=20
      better if central banks tried to smooth the path of credit over =
the whole=20
      business cycle? </FONT></P><BR clear=3Dall>
      <TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 width=3D"100%" border=3D0>
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          <TD align=3Dright width=3D"100%">... <A=20
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href=3D"http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3D1336105"><FO=
NT=20
            face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color=3D#cc0033 =
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            =
href=3D"http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=3D1336202">The=
=20
            unfinished recession</A> </FONT><BR><BR><FONT=20
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ining=20
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href=3D"http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=3D1336163">Kee=
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            size=3D-2><A=20
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            </FONT><BR><BR><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans =
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            size=3D-2><A=20
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            balls-up </A><IMG=20
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            size=3D-2><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=3D1336129">Jap=
an's=20
            lost decade</A> <IMG=20
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            </FONT><BR><BR><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans =
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href=3D"http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=3D1336117">A=20
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ble=20
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            size=3D-2><A=20
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href=3D"http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=3D1336091">Uni=
ted=20
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            </FONT><BR><BR><FONT face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans =
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            size=3D-2><A=20
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href=3D"http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=3D1336059">Aft=
er=20
            the bubbles </A><IMG=20
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rces=20
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          <TD width=3D120 bgColor=3D#ffffff><FONT=20
            face=3D"verdana, geneva, arial, sans serif"=20
            size=3D-2><B>Websites</B><BR><BR></FONT><FONT=20
            face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" size=3D-2>=93<A =
target=3D_blank=20
            href=3D"http://web.mit.edu/caball/www/jpe09fig.pdf">The Cost =
of=20
            Recessions Revisited: A Reverse-Liquidationist View</A>=94 =
by Ricardo=20
            Caballero and Mohamad Hammour.</FONT><BR><FONT=20
            face=3D"verdana,geneva,arial,sans serif" color=3D#999999=20
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