Mark Hulbert: = Let's hear it for the markets - Financial - Financial Services - General = - Markets/Exchanges

Member ID: =

Password:

Free=20 membership

Special=20 offers

Help=

Nasdaq: MKTW


NEWSLETTERS=20 & RESEARCH HOME	HULBERT=20 INTERACTIVE	GURU'S=20 CORNER	DIRECTORY	HERB=20 GREENBERG'S REALITYCHECK	MY=20 SUBSCRIPTIONS

ENTER SYMBOL(S)

Quote/NewsChartsProfileAdvisersAnalystsInsidersOptionsFinancialsMessagesSEC=20 Filing

Find=20 symbol Live quotes Keyword=20 search Unlock=20 Stock, Fund and Newsletter Performance Secrets=20

BECOME=20 A MEMBER

View=20 all member benefits



	FREE!

SPONSORED LINKS

Try Currency Trading Risk-Free = 30=20 Days

24-hour commission-free trading, = 100-to-1=20 leverage of your capital, and Dealbook Fx 2 - = our free=20 advanced trading software. Sign up for our free = 30-day=20 trial and receive one-on-one=20 training.

Mortgage Rates Drop to 6-Month=20 Low

$150,000 mortgage for only = $610/month.=20 Lower your mortgage. Free quotes. Apply now - = bad credit=20 = OK.

= TOP=20 FEATURES

= = = = = = = = =

Main=20 Page

About=20 Herb Greenberg

Technical=20 Analysis

Mark=20 Hulbert

Peter=20 Brimelow

The=20 Guru's Corner

Directory=20 (Newsletters)

Newsletter=20 Profiles

Equity=20 Profiles

Fixed=20 Income Profiles

CBS.MW ANYWHERE

= = = = =

		RSS
		Phone/PDA
		E-mail
		TV
		Radio

	PR= EMIUM=20 PRODUCTS

ETF=20 Trader NEW A methodology to invest in exchange-traded = funds

Herb=20 Greenberg's RealityCheck A = must-read=20 for investors looking for new = ideas

Hulbert=20 Interactive Customize your = search of=20 the HFD database

Retirement=20 Weekly Get the retirement you = want

The=20 Technical Indicator Technical = analysis=20 for sophisticated traders

Hulbert=20 Financial Digest The = definitive guide=20 to investment newsletters

HFD=20 Honor Roll & Profiles Detailed=20 newsletter performance ratings

MarketWatch University Courses to help teach you to trade = & invest=20 like a pro

CBS MarketWatch LIVE Get=20 real time streaming quotes & = charts.

Order=20 now!

MARK = HULBERT

	The markets are the=20 victors

By Ma= rk=20 Hulbert, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 9:39 AM ET Nov. 3,=20 = 2004

ANNANDALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- As I write = this=20 Wednesday morning, the winner of the presidential election = has yet=20 to be declared, even though foreign stock markets and the = U.S.=20 futures market appear to have concluded that Bush has won a = second=20 term.

CBS=20 MARKETWATCH TOP NEWS

U.S= .=20 retail sales jump bolsters = futures

Del= ta=20 Air widens loss estimate, details=20 restructuring

Som= e=20 analysts lift earnings views on Sun=20 Micro

Air= bus=20 may seek Europe loans for new=20 plane

Spi= tzer=20 takes on insurance=20 = industry

Free! Sign = up here to=20 receive our Personal Finance Daily=20 e-Newsletter!

TRADING = CENTER

Get up=20 to $500 in commission-free = trades

HULBERT=20 FINANCIAL DIGEST

Order your copy of the = HFD=20 Monthly Newsletter

Search the = HFD=20 database with Hulbert=20 Interactive

Get a Profile=20 of any newsletter tracked by=20 HFD.

Discover the best performers = with HFD=20 Honor Roll.=20 =

It's nevertheless not too early to conclude that the = markets did=20 a better job than the political pundits of forecasting the=20 outcome.

That is perhaps the most important lesson that investors = can draw=20 from the last several months: Ignore the endless stream of=20 predictions issued by these pundits and focus instead on = what the=20 markets are saying.

Of course, the markets don't always make it easy to = interpret=20 what they are saying. In the political arena, though, they = do,=20 thanks to the Internet-based futures markets that allow = investors to=20 bet on, among things, various political events such as = presidential=20 elections.

The best known of these futures are markets are = Dublin-based Intrade = and the Iowa = Electronic=20 Markets. As of Monday night, both were projecting that, = while=20 the race was close, Bush would be the victor.

Those projections are looking quite prescient right now. = And they=20 are looking far better than the many predictions of Kerry = victories=20 that were boldly made by so many market gurus as recently as = Tuesday=20 afternoon.

One newsletter I monitor, for example, confidently wrote = Monday=20 night that, when the "dust settles" Wednesday morning, "John = Kerry=20 will be the 44th President."

Another newsletter reported on an indicator whose success = rate in=20 predicting presidential elections was "better than any other = economic, financial or market statistic" that he had ever = seen. It=20 also was predicting a Kerry victory.

These confident predictions notwithstanding, the = electronic=20 futures markets continued to forecast that Bush would win a = close=20 election.

Why do they do such a good job? To get some answers, I = chatted=20 Tuesday night with Justin Wolfers, an assistant professor of = business and public policy at the Wharton School of the = University=20 of Pennsylvania. He believes, he said, that the key to these = electronic futures markets' success is their ability to = aggregate=20 and process lots of information -- far more than any of us = can=20 individually, no matter how smart or how widely read we may = be.

These electronic futures markets have this ability even = if the=20 volume of trading on them is relatively small. Wolfers said = it=20 doesn't take a huge amount of trading in these markets for = them to=20 incorporate a tremendous amount of relevant information and=20 insight.

Of course, the relatively small size of these electronic = futures=20 markets makes them at least theoretically vulnerable to = attempts to=20 manipulate them, as I suggested in my Oct. 22 column. (Read=20 archived column.) But Wolfers said any attempt to = manipulate=20 these futures markets would rarely have more than a = short-term=20 effect and eventually fail.

To be sure, these futures markets sometimes are volatile. = Indeed,=20 for a few hours Tuesday, the Intrade Bush contract dropped = to below=20 30, in effect assigning less than a 30 percent probability = to his=20 re-election. This happened when early exit polls appeared to = show=20 Kerry winning.

But it hardly is a criticism of these futures exchanges = that they=20 are not perfect. Nothing is, of course.

They appear to have come closer than any of the=20 alternatives.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of = Hulbert=20 Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the = advice=20 of more than 160 financial newsletters since = 1980.

More=20 MARK HULBERT
=95What=20 the market's sectors think of Bush & Kerry 12:01am ET=20 11/01/04
=95Gold's=20 bull market powered by weaker dollar 12:18am ET = 10/29/04
=95The=20 markets as political prognosticator 1:18am ET = 10/22/04
=95Nothing=20 special about years ending in five 12:43am ET = 10/20/04
=95Why=20 so many newsletters like Pfizer 12:01am ET 10/19/04

Latest Industry News Get=20 Alerted on News in this Industry
=95Treasurys=20 remain lower 11:10am ET 11/03/04
=95Funds=20 that can weather election uncertainty 10:53am ET = 11/03/04
=95Europe,=20 Asia markets rise with Bush in lead 10:47am ET = 11/03/04
=95Likely=20 Bush victory lifts financial sector 9:53am ET = 11/03/04
=95At=20 least this time, Wall Street sees clear vote outcome 9:51am ET = 11/03/04

SPONSORED LINKS

Get listed here

Try Currency Trading Risk-Free 30 = Days
24-hour commission-free trading, = 100-to-1=20 leverage of your capital, and Dealbook Fx 2 - our free = advanced trading software. Sign up for our free 30-day = trial=20 and receive one-on-one training.
http://www.edapebaf.com/clickthrough.cool?db=3Dcontext&am= p;position=3D7001&tid=3Dbhngbpnpbknpbpnjbjnnzlvpxcrtxv&eid=3D1&am= p;id=3D80826031&query=3DFinance&clickid=3D76587688&UNQ=3D0010= 9949933732074538

Mortgage Rates Drop to 6-Month = Low
$150,000 mortgage for only $610/month. = Lower=20 your mortgage. Free quotes. Apply now - bad credit=20 OK.
http://www.edapebaf.com/clickthrough.cool?db=3Dcontext&am= p;position=3D7002&tid=3Dbhngbpnpbknpbpnjbjnnzjvdrzrsxo&eid=3D1&am= p;id=3D80787813&query=3DFinance&clickid=3D76587688&UNQ=3D0010= 9949933732074538

Term Life Insurance with = SelectQuote
Lower rates, better choice. At = SelectQuote, real=20 licensed agents will find you the term life insurance = coverage=20 you need.
http://www.edapebaf.com/clickthrough.cool?db=3Dcontext&am= p;position=3D7003&tid=3Dbhngbpnpbknpbpnjbjnnzvvdrzrsxo&eid=3D1&am= p;id=3D78278372&query=3DFinance&clickid=3D76587688&UNQ=3D0010= 9949933732074538

Free Insurance Quotes and = Help
Get free quotes on life insurance, = health=20 insurance, auto, home and others from a local = MostChoice=20 expert. Let them save you time and money! No cost or=20 obligation. Quick and easy form.
http://www.edapebaf.com/clickthrough.cool?db=3Dcontext&am= p;position=3D7004&tid=3Dbhngbpnpbknpbpnjbjnnzqvcxfrvxr&eid=3D1&am= p;id=3D81218671&query=3DFinance&clickid=3D76587688&UNQ=3D0010= 9949933732074538

IRS Tax Help - We Solve IRS = Problems
Our expert team of ex-IRS agents, tax = attorneys=20 and accountants negotiate with the IRS to reduce your = back=20 taxes. Settle debt for pennies on the dollar. Get help = now!
http://www.edapebaf.com/clickthrough.cool?db=3Dcontext&am= p;position=3D7005&tid=3Dbhngbpnpbknpbpnjbjnnzdvfryrrxa&eid=3D1&am= p;id=3D79724601&query=3DFinance&clickid=3D76587688&UNQ=3D0010= 9949933732074538

Find out which investment newsletters = really=20 pay off!

Don=92t pay $100, $200 or more a = year for=20 investment advisory newsletters that don=92t = consistently beat=20 the market. Instead let the Hulbert Financial Digest = tell you=20 which advisors =96 based on past performances =96 are = most likely=20 to make money for you. Subscribe=20 today and get 50% off the regular price and 3 free=20 bonuses-worth $65.=20 =

	Fron= t=20 Page \| Discussions=20 \| Mo= bile=20 \| Alerts=20 \| RSS \|=20 Premium=20 Products \| Free=20 Membership = Feedback=20 \| Letters=20 to the Editor \| Site=20 Index \| C= ompany=20 Info \| Investor=20 Relations \| Jobs=20 \| Advertising Media=20 Kit License CBS MarketWatch news, plus custom financial tools = and data,=20 from MarketWatch=20 Information Services. MarketWatch is traded on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the = symbol=20 MKTW. Partner Sites: CBSNews.com \| CBS.com \| FT.com \| BigCharts.com \| World Business News=20 Alliance
<= IMG=20 height=3D31 alt=3D"TRUSTe: Click to Verify"=20 = src=3D"http://i.mktw.net/images/branding/MKTW/TrustE_finalmark.gif"=20 width=3D116 align=3Dcenter border=3D0>		=A9 1997-2004 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights = reserved. Terms=20 of Service. S= ee=20 our Privacy Policy (updated 4/3/03). MARKETWATCH, the = MarketWatch=20 logo, and BIGCHARTS are registered trademarks of MarketWatch, = Inc. CBS=20 and the CBS "eye device" are registered trademarks of CBS = Broadcasting,=20 Inc.
Intraday data provided by Comstock,=20 a division of Interactive Data Corp. and subject to ter= ms of=20 use. Historical and current end-of-day data provided by FT = Interactive=20 Data. Intraday data delayed 15 minutes for Nasdaq, and 20 = minutes=20 for other exchanges. Dow Jones IndexesSM from Dow Jones & = Company,=20 Inc. SEHK intraday data is provided by Comstock and is at least = 60-minutes delayed. All quotes are in local exchange time.=20

------=_NextPart_001_0047_01C4C198.5C0F1AA0 Content-Type: application/octet-stream Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://ad.doubleclick.net/adi/N1974.cbsmw/B1433749.4;sz=300x250;ord=20055? Click here to find out more! <A=20 href=3D"http://ad.doubleclick.net/activity;src=3D500047;met=3D1;v=3D1;pid= =3D10256493;aid=3D10697265;ko=3D0;cid=3D6900903;rid=3D6918799;rv=3D1;cs=3D= b;eid1=3D1031;ecn1=3D1;etm1=3D0;_dc_redir=3Durl?http://ad.doubleclick.net= /click;h=3Dv3|31b8|3|0|*|p;10697265;0-0;0;10256493;4307-300|250;6900903|6= 918799|1;;~sscs=3D?http://www.imagination3.com/"=20 target=3D_blank><IMG alt=3D""=20 src=3D"http://m3.doubleclick.net/500047/PID_17631_world_300X250_20k_3l.gi= f"=20 border=3D0> </A>

------=_NextPart_001_0047_01C4C198.5C0F1AA0-- ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C4C198.5C077980 Content-Type: application/octet-stream Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://cbs.marketwatch.com/dm_client.js //=20 ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C4C198.5C077980--