Houston= Chronicle.com - Professors stand by unusual futures contracts

From: Subject: HoustonChronicle.com - Professors stand by unusual futures contracts Date: Wed, 5 Mar 2003 14:56:49 -0800 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_003C_01C2E327.73383B90"; type="multipart/alternative" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_003C_01C2E327.73383B90 Content-Type: image/gif Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-Location: http://images.chron.com/content/common/buttons/ngstreamer.gif R0lGODlh1AESANUAAP////f39+fn7+/v9/f3/97e5+fn987O3tbW597e78bG3s7O57291rW1zr29 3rW11q2tzqWlxqWlzpycxpSUvYyMtZSUxoyMvYSEtXt7rXNzpXt7tXNzrWtrpWNjnGNjpVpanFJS lEpKjFJSnEpKlEJCjDk5hDk5jDExhCkpeykphCEhcyEhexgYcxAQaxAQcwgIawAASgAAUgAAWgAA YwAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACwAAAAA1AESAEAG/0CacEgsGo/IpHLJ bDqf0Kh0Sq1ar9isdsvteo8zAmBMBkxmEACkJUszYBgAw+VSAEiogvxzcs1mJgsAIDItaROFaREu DGYxKAMDJSkAARQyRi0AAyc0FwANNCVjHEIHZjQzpxIzehk0LAIAKDF2pY0LKTIcCBwzFAAUM58Q 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http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1790176 Houston= Chronicle.com - Professors stand by unusual futures contracts

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HoustonChronicle.com

Secti= on:=20 Business
Section:=20 Iraq

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Feb. 23, 2003, = 8:12PM

Professors stand by unusual futures contracts

By = MARK=20 HULBERT
New York Times

Few people would disagree with the forecast that stocks = would=20 drop if war started tomorrow in Iraq. But two Stanford = economics=20 professors, Eric Zitzewitz and Justin Wolfers, go further,=20 predicting that the market would drop 5 percent.=20

Academics rarely make precise short-term market = predictions. The=20 duo arrived at theirs by using standard econometric analysis = and an=20 unusual derivative that trades at www.tradesports.com, based = in=20 Dublin, Ireland.=20

At this Web site, you can bet on whether Duke will win = the NCAA=20 basketball title, whether Chicago will win the Oscar = for best=20 picture or where the Dow Jones industrials will end 2003.=20

According to John Delaney, the site's chief executive, = most of=20 its active users are traders from Wall Street or Chicago = futures=20 exchanges.=20

The derivative on which the professors base their = unpublished=20 research is indeed unconventional: a futures contract on = Saddam=20 Hussein's presidency. The contract, which was trading at = $7.50=20 recently, will pay $10 if Saddam is not Iraq's president on = June 30;=20 otherwise it will pay nothing.=20

Because the professors assume that Saddam will not step = down,=20 they argue that the contract reflects traders' assessment of = the=20 probability of a war resulting in his ouster. The current = price=20 suggests that the market assesses this probability as 75 = percent=20 between now and midyear.=20

The professors acknowledge that the contract may seem too = bizarre=20 to be the basis of serious research. They further concede = that its=20 trading volume is low, just over $140,000 over the last five = months.=20 Yet, for a variety of reasons, they say its price accurately = gauges=20 the probability of an Iraqi war.=20

To counter concerns about the contract's volume, the = professors=20 point out that it is still higher than that of the Iowa = Electronic=20 Market, a real-money futures exchange administered by the = University=20 of Iowa that allows speculating on the U.S. presidential = election.=20 Despite trading volume that has averaged just $108,000 an = election,=20 these Iowa contracts have had an excellent track record. = Their=20 average forecast error for the popular vote in the last four = presidential contests has been 1.37 percentage points, about = half=20 the average error of nine major polling organizations, = according a=20 study by four professors at the university.=20

Zitzewitz and Wolfers say they believe that markets in = general=20 reflect more wisdom than any single person can possibly = have, and=20 thus do a better job of assessing probabilities. That holds = true not=20 only for large markets, they say, but also for small ones.=20

The professors concede that Web-based futures, which are = largely=20 unregulated, could be skewed by someone willing and able to = place=20 sizable buy or sell orders well above or below the current = price.=20 But they doubt that this is the case for the contract on = Saddam's=20 ouster, believing that no one has an obvious motive to do = so.=20

Once the professors were satisfied that this contract was = a=20 legitimate basis for research, arriving at their conclusion = was=20 straightforward. First, they measured how much the Standard = &=20 Poor's 500 index fell, on average, when the price of the = contract=20 increased, and vice versa. These measurements let them = estimate how=20 low the S&P 500 would drop if the contract approached = $10, which=20 they believe would be likely on the day a war breaks out. = They also=20 calculated how high it would go if the contract fell to = zero,=20 reflecting zero probability. Their study, conducted with the = assistance of Andrew Leigh, a Harvard graduate student, is = at=20 facultygsb.stanford.edu/zitzewitz/Research/iraq.pdf.=20

Their analysis projects a 20 percent difference in the = S&P=20 500's level at the contract's two price extremes. From this, = they=20 concluded that on the day a war begins, the cumulative = effect of the=20 buildup to war would be a 20 percent drop in the S&P.=20

With the $10 contract trading at $7.50, the professors = believe=20 that 75 percent of the overall 20 percent drop has already = occurred.=20 That implies that if a war begins, the market would drop no = more=20 than an additional 5 percent.=20

If their forecasts prove accurate, the professors will = overcome=20 at least some of the concerns about the Saddam Hussein = futures=20 contract. In any case, with a proliferation of such = unconventional=20 trading instruments, we should anticipate more analyses like = theirs=20 in coming years.=20

Retur= n=20 to=20 top

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