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Subject: smh.com.au - The Sydney Morning Herald
Date: Wed, 5 Mar 2003 14:56:16 -0800
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    <TD width=3D"70%"><BR>
      <H1><HEADLINE>Saddam futures indicate 5% fall</HEADLINE></H1>
      <P class=3Darticledetails><DATE>February 18 2003</DATE><BR></P><BR =

      clear=3Dall><BOD>
      <P>
      <P>Few people would disagree with the forecast that share prices =
would=20
      drop if war started tomorrow in Iraq. But two Stanford economics=20
      professors Eric Zitzewitz and Justin Wolfers, go further, =
predicting that=20
      the market would drop 5 per cent.</P>
      <P>Academics rarely make precise short-term market predictions. =
The=20
      professors arrived at theirs by using standard econometric =
analysis and an=20
      unusual derivative that trades at www.tradesports.com, based in =
Dublin. At=20
      this Web site, you can bet on whether Duke will win the NCAA =
basketball=20
      title, whether <I>Chicago</I> will win the Oscar for best picture =
or where=20
      the Dow Jones industrials will end 2003. According to John =
Delaney, the=20
      site's chief executive, most of its active users are traders from =
Wall=20
      Street or Chicago futures exchanges.</P>
      <P>The derivative on which the professors base their unpublished =
research=20
      is a futures contract on Saddam Hussein's presidency. The =
contract, which=20
      was trading at $US7.50 on Friday, will pay $US10 if Saddam is not =
Iraq's=20
      president on June 30; otherwise it will pay nothing.</P>
      <P>The professors assume that Saddam won't step down voluntarily =
and so=20
      argue that the contract reflects traders' assessment of the =
probability of=20
      a war resulting in his ouster. The price suggests the market =
assesses this=20
      probability as 75 per cent between now and mid-year.</P>
      <P>The professors acknowledge that the contract may seem too =
bizarre to be=20
      the basis of serious research; and concede that its trading volume =
is low,=20
      just over $US140,000 ($237,000) in the past five months. Yet they =
say its=20
      price accurately gauges the probability of an Iraqi war.<BR=20
      clear=3Dall><ISLANDAD>
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      </ISLANDAD></P>
      <P>They point out that turnover is still higher than that of the =
Iowa=20
      Electronic Market, a real-money futures exchange administered by =
the=20
      University of Iowa that allows speculating on the US presidential=20
      election. Despite trading volume that has averaged just $US108,000 =
an=20
      election, these Iowa contracts have had an excellent track =
record.</P>
      <P>Professors Zitzewitz and Wolfers say markets in general reflect =
more=20
      wisdom than any single person can possibly have, and thus do a =
better job=20
      of assessing probabilities. That holds true not only for large =
markets,=20
      they say, but also for small and unconventional ones - assuming no =
one=20
      single big bet has skewed the odds.</P>
      <P>The professors correlated the S&amp;P500 with the Saddam =
contract to=20
      determine their expected percentage fall. For details, see=20
      http://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/zitzewitz/Research/iraq.pdf</P>
      <P><B>The New York Times</P></BOD><BR clear=3Dall><A=20
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function NBAdNB(URL, Width, Height, Wait, XPos, YPos) {=0A=
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NBURL[NBPlace] =3D URL;=0A=
NBWait[NBPlace] =3D Wait;=0A=
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NBWidth[NBPlace] =3D Width;=0A=
NBHeight[NBPlace] =3D Height;=0A=
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function SetNBStart(DelTime) {=0A=
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=0A=
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function getContext () {=0A=
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=0A=
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function screenSize() =0A=
{=0A=
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function calcXPos(xval, width) =0A=
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=0A=
=0A=
NBIsDemo();
------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C2E327.5F643E70
Content-Type: application/x-javascript
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Content-Location: http://playlist.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/10/001/001/play.js

NBPlayVers =3D 2.85;=0D<!--  begin config -->=0Dvar NBClient =3D =
"001-000010"; // Fairfax=0Dvar NBSite =3D "001"; // Herald Online=0Dvar =
NBArea =3D "001"; // Default=0Dvar NBArgs =3D ""; // Insert Tracking =
Data=0Dvar NBPageRet;=0D<!-- end Config -->=0D<!--  Begin PageKey =
-->=0DNBPage[0] =3D "xxtravel/";=0DNBPage[1] =3D "xxgames1";=0DNBPage[2] =
=3D "xxicon/";=0DNBPage[3] =3D "xxfeatures/index";=0DNBPage[4] =3D =
"xxentertainment/index";=0DNBPage[5] =3D "xxbusiness/index";=0DNBPage[6] =
=3D "xx/world/";=0DNBPage[7] =3D "xx/national/";=0DNBPage[8] =3D =
"xx/breaking/";=0DNBPage[9] =3D "xxsport/golf";=0DNBPage[10] =3D =
"xxsport/motorsport";=0DNBPage[11] =3D "xxsport/";=0DNBPage[12] =3D =
"xxarticles/2002";=0DNBPage[13] =3D "xxtechnology/index";=0D<!--  End =
PageKey -->=0Dvar NBList =3D parseInt(Math.random() * 3);=0DNBPageRet =
=3D NBCheckURL();=0D<!--  Begin Playlist -->=0DNBckExp =3D =
2678400000;=0DckDomain =3D null;=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 1 ) {=0DNBSite =
=3D "106"; // Travel=0DNBArea =3D "106";=0DNBChance =3D 0;=0DcurNB =3D =
0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 3;=0DNBplName =3D "far01";=0DNBAdNB( =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/33/1P0.html", 240, 180, 72000, =
"", "");=0DNBAdNB( "http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/33/1P0.html", =
240, 180, 72000, "", "");=0DNBAdNB( =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/33/1P0.html", 240, 180, 72000, =
"", "");=0D//SetNBStart(2000);=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 3 ) {=0DNBSite =
=3D "300"; // Icon=0DNBArea =3D "300";=0DNBChance =3D 1;=0DcurNB =3D =
0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 1;=0DNBplName =3D "ad02";=0DNBURL[0] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/02/66/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[0] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[0] =3D "width=3D322,height=3D272";=0D//window.onload =3D =
startNB;=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 2 ) {=0DNBSite =3D "008"; // Icon =
Games=0DNBArea =3D "008";=0DNBChance =3D 0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 4;=0DcurNB =
=3D 2;=0DNBplName =3D "o@h3a01";=0DNBURL[0] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/02/16/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[0] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[0] =3D "width=3D322,height=3D282";=0DNBURL[1] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/02/14/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[1] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[1] =3D "width=3D322,height=3D282";=0DNBURL[2] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/01/98/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[2] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[2] =3D "width=3D322,height=3D282";=0DNBURL[3] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/02/01/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[3] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[3] =3D "width=3D342,height=3D282";=0D//window.onload =3D =
startNB;=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 4 ) {=0DNBSite =3D "009"; // =
Features=0DNBArea =3D "009";=0DNBChance =3D 0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 0;=0DcurNB =
=3D 0;=0DNBplName =3D "o@h3m08";=0DNBURL[0] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/02/16/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[0] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[0] =3D "width=3D322,height=3D282";=0DNBURL[1] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/02/01/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[1] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[1] =3D "width=3D322,height=3D282";=0DNBURL[2] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/01/98/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[2] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[2] =3D "width=3D322,height=3D282";=0DNBURL[3] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/02/14/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[3] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[3] =3D "width=3D342,height=3D282";=0D//window.onload =3D =
startNB;=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 5 ) {=0DNBSite =3D "018"; // =
Entertainment=0DNBArea =3D "018";=0DNBChance =3D 0;=0DcurNB =3D =
0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 1;=0DNBplName =3D "farmu01";=0DNBAdNB( =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/33/1P0.html", 240, 180, 2400, =
"", "");=0D//SetNBStart(2000);=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 6 ) {=0DNBSite =
=3D "103"; // SMH Business Index=0DNBArea =3D "103";=0DNBChance =3D =
0;=0DcurNB =3D 0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 4;=0DNBplName =3D "bp01";=0DNBAdNB( =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/51/1P0.html", 320, 240, 72000, =
"", "");=0DNBAdNB( "http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/51/1P0.html", =
320, 240, 216000, "", "");=0DNBAdNB( =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/51/1P0.html", 320, 240, 72000, =
"", "");=0DNBAdNB( "http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/51/1P0.html", =
320, 240, 72000, "", "");=0D//SetNBStart(2000);=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =
=3D=3D 7 ) {=0DNBSite =3D "107"; // SMH World News=0DNBArea =3D =
"107";=0DNBChance =3D 0;=0DcurNB =3D 0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 0;=0DNBplName =3D =
"em02";=0DNBURL[0] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/06/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[0] =3D =
604800;=0DNBSize[0] =3D "width=3D222,height=3D222";=0D//window.onload =
=3D startNB;=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 8 ) {=0DNBSite =3D "100"; // SMH =
National News Index=0DNBArea =3D "100";=0DNBChance =3D 1;=0DcurNB =3D =
0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 2;=0DNBplName =3D "emcas01";=0DNBURL[0] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/08/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[0] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[0] =3D "width=3D297,height=3D257";=0DNBURL[1] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/08/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[1] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[1] =3D "width=3D297,height=3D257";=0D//var NBStartTimer =
=3D setTimeout("startNB();", 2000);=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 9 ) =
{=0DNBSite =3D "101"; // SMH Breaking News Index=0DNBArea =3D =
"101";=0DNBChance =3D 0;=0DcurNB =3D 0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 3;=0DNBplName =3D =
"ma01";=0DNBURL[0] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/02/88/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[0] =3D =
72000;=0DNBSize[0] =3D "width=3D422,height=3D322";=0DNBURL[1] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/02/88/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[1] =3D =
72000;=0DNBSize[1] =3D "width=3D422,height=3D322";=0DNBURL[2] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/02/88/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[2] =3D =
72000;=0DNBSize[2] =3D "width=3D422,height=3D322";=0D//window.onload =3D =
startNB;=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 10 ) {=0DNBSite =3D "108"; // SMH =
Golf Index=0DNBArea =3D "108";=0DNBChance =3D 0;=0DcurNB =3D =
0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 0;=0DNBplName =3D "auds302";=0DNBURL[0] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/09/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[0] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[0] =3D "width=3D342,height=3D272";=0DNBURL[1] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/10/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[1] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[1] =3D "width=3D342,height=3D272";=0D//window.onload =3D =
startNB;=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 11 ) {=0DNBSite =3D "109"; // SMH =
Motorsport Index=0DNBArea =3D "109";=0DNBChance =3D 0;=0DcurNB =3D =
0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 0;=0DNBplName =3D "auds303";=0DNBURL[0] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/09/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[0] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[0] =3D "width=3D342,height=3D272";=0DNBURL[1] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/10/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[1] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[1] =3D "width=3D342,height=3D272";=0D//window.onload =3D =
startNB;=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 12 ) {=0DNBSite =3D "104"; // SMH =
Sport Index=0DNBArea =3D "104";=0DNBChance =3D 0;=0DcurNB =3D =
0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 0;=0DNBplName =3D "auds301";=0DNBURL[0] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/09/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[0] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[0] =3D "width=3D342,height=3D272";=0DNBURL[1] =3D =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/10/1P0.html";=0DNBWait[1] =3D =
2400;=0DNBSize[1] =3D "width=3D342,height=3D272";=0D//window.onload =3D =
startNB;=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 13 ) {=0DNBSite =3D "110"; // SMH =
Stories=0DNBArea =3D "110";=0DNBChance =3D 0.002;=0DcurNB =3D =
2;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 3;=0DNBplName =3D "westpaciig02";=0DNBAdNB( =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/27/1P0.html", 300, 250, 86400, =
"", "");=0DNBAdNB( "http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/28/1P0.html", =
300, 250, 86400, "", "");=0DNBAdNB( =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/29/1P0.html", 300, 250, 86400, =
"", "");=0D//SetNBStart();=0D}=0Dif( NBPageRet =3D=3D 14 ) {=0DNBSite =
=3D "111"; // SMH Tech Index=0DNBArea =3D "111";=0DNBChance =3D =
0;=0DcurNB =3D 0;=0DNBLoopTo =3D 4;=0DNBplName =3D "wwbp02";=0DNBAdNB( =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/51/1P0.html", 320, 240, 72000, =
"", "");=0DNBAdNB( "http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/51/1P0.html", =
320, 240, 216000, "", "");=0DNBAdNB( =
"http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/51/1P0.html", 320, 240, 72000, =
"", "");=0DNBAdNB( "http://nb.netbreak.com.au/001/00/00/03/51/1P0.html", =
320, 240, 72000, "", "");=0D//SetNBStart();=0D}=0D<!--  End Playlist -->=0D
------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C2E327.5F643E70
Content-Type: application/x-javascript
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Content-Location: http://server-au.imrworldwide.com/a1.js

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>=3D4)&&(rsOP=3D=3D-1)){var rsLG=3Dnavigator.userLanguage;}=0A=
if(rsIE>0){rsMSIE=3Dtrue;=0A=
if(rsIEV>=3D6){rsIE6=3Dtrue;}}if(rsXP>0){rsOSXP=3Dtrue;}=0A=
if((rsOSXP=3D=3Dtrue)&&(rsIE6=3D=3Dtrue)){rsIE6XP=3Dtrue;}=0A=
var rsPR=3D'<img =
src=3D"http://server-au.imrworldwide.com/cgi-bin/count?url=3D'+pUrl+'&rnd=
=3D'+(new =
Date()).getTime()+'&cid=3D'+pCid+'&ref=3D'+refR+'&sr=3Dsr'+rsSW+'x'+rsSH+=
':cd'+rsCD+':lg'+rsLG+':je'+rsJE+':ck'+rsCK+':tz'+rsTZ+':ct'+rsCT+':hp'+r=
sHP+'" width=3D1 height=3D1>';=0A=
if(pUrl!=3D"")pUrl=3D'<param name=3D"url" value=3D"'+pUrl+'">';=0A=
if(pCid!=3D"")pCid=3D'<param name=3D"cid" value=3D"'+pCid+'">';=0A=
RSsr=3D'<param name=3D"sr" =
value=3D"sr'+rsSW+'x'+rsSH+':cd'+rsCD+':lg'+rsLG+':je'+rsJE+':ck'+rsCK+':=
tz'+rsTZ+':ct'+rsCT+':hp'+rsHP+'">';=0A=
if((rsMC=3D=3D-1)&&(rsNN=3D=3D-1)&&(rsCE=3D=3D-1)&&(rsLX=3D=3D-1)&&(rsOP=3D=
=3D-1)&&(navigator.javaEnabled())&&(rsIE6XP!=3Dtrue)){=0A=
rsPR=3D'<applet code=3D"Measure.class" =
codebase=3D"http://server-au.imrworldwide.com/" width=3D1 =
height=3D2>'+pUrl+pCid+RSsr+'<param name=3D"ref" =
value=3D"'+refR+'"></applet>';}=0A=
document.write(rsPR);}pd1_1();=0A=
//-->=0A=

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