Some of my work for a broader (non-academic) audience:

• Policy journals
• Profiles of my research
• TV and radio appearances
• Op-eds and columns
• Blogging
• Election commentary
• Miscellaneous

Policy Journals

A Statistical Look at Roger Clemens' Pitching Career with Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen and Abraham (Adi) Wyner
- Critiques the claim that an analysis by Roger Clemens' agents that analysis of his career statistics suggests he did not use performance-enhancing drugs.
- Follow-up commentary: New York Times (html) ESPN (html) (fan comments); My Freakonomics post (and follow-up); MLB.com (html); EPSN (html); NY Daily News (html); Star-Telegram (html); Philadelphia Inquirer (html); AP (html).

How Should We Think About the Taxpayer Consequences of Divorce? (html) with Betsey Stevenson
Council on Contemporary Families, April 15, 2008
- Discusses the tax consequences of changing family structure.
- Follow-up commentary in: Washington Times.

Marriage and the Market with Betsey Stevenson
Cato Unbound, January 2008  (Full symposium here)
- Describes the history of the family as a response to economic conditions

Study of Unconscious Bias Withstands Harshest Scrutiny with Joe Price
Sports Business Journal, 10(8), June 11 2007.
- Describes our research on racial bias by NBA referees, and responds to several criticisms.

Prediction Markets for Business and Public Policy with Andrew Leigh
The Melbourne Review, 3(1), May 2007
- Provides an introduction to prediction markets, and proposals for a legal framework in Australia.

Statement on Prediction Markets
A policy proposal for making prediction markets more accessible in the U.S.  Signed by four Nobel Laureates, and leading prediction market researchers (including yours truly)

New Uses for New Macro Derivatives
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, 2006-31, August 25, 2006.
- Summarizes recent data on economic derivatives, showing that these prediction market data yield more accurate forecasts than the consensus survey.

The Death Penalty: No Evidence for Deterrence with John J. Donohue
The Economists' Voice, 3(5), April 13, 2006.
- Argues that Gary Becker and Richard Posner are wrong to think that the death penalty deters murder.  We find little empirical support for their claim of deterrence. If anything, when one looks over the longest period possible (1934-2000) there is more evidence that the death penalty stimulates murder than that it deters murder.
- A reply from Paul Rubin
- And our response

"Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election" with Eric Zitzewitz
The Economists' Voice, 1(2), October 12, 2004
- We recently persuaded TradeSports to run experimental contingent betting markets, in which one bets on whether President Bush will be re-elected, conditional on other specified events occurring. Thhese markets suggest that issues outside the campaign - like the state of the economy, and progress on the war on terror - were key factors in the 2004 U.S. election.
        - Subsequent coverage in the Rocky Mountain News and Capitol Hill Blue

"Pricing Political Risks with Prediction Markets" (html)
Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Policy Brief, June 2004.
- Discusses political prediction markets, with an eye to the forces likely to be important in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election.

"The Best and Worst of the United States" with Andrew Leigh
Australian Quarterly: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, September-October 2003
- This essay attempts a balanced assessment of the US, praising her greatest policy achievements and weaknesses.

"Economics, Experiments and Psychology", (html) with Andrew Leigh
Quadrant, January - February 2003.
- Reviews the contributions of our latest Nobel Laureates, psychologist Danny Kahneman and experimenter Vernon Smith, arguing that recent innovations in collecting field data will lead to further progress.

"Moving to Opportunity", with Andrew Leigh
Australian Quarterly: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, September 2001. 
- A radical US social experiment is showing how your neighborhood affects your life chances.

"Abortion and Crime", with Andrew Leigh
Australian Quarterly: Journal of Contemporary Analysis, August 2000. 
- Examines Australian data on the link between the rise in abortion and the fall in violent crime.

Profiles of my Research

Everythingonomics (scanned version with photo)
Australian Financial Review, April 19, 2008, by Deidre Macken
- An interesting assessment of the current state of economics.

ESPN Magazine: "Behind-the-scenes" powerbrokers in sports
- And I get called the "Agitator".

Profile in American Magazine: A Bettor World (html version)
- A (rather colorful) profile of your truly.

Radio: Economics Reimagined (mp3 file) (Full 1 hour program) (PRI Website)
Radio Open Source, with Christopher Lydon, Public Radio International, January 11, 2007.
- Radio discussion about the future of economics. 
- Full program includes Diane Coyle, Stefano DellVigna and Jesse Rothstein

The Future of Economics Isn't So Dismal (html) (table)
New York Times, January 10, 2007, by David Leonhardt
- Describes 13 young economists (including yours truly) as "the future of economics".

Television and Radio Appearances Discussing My Research

Radio: Prediction Markets (mp3 file)
Fair Game, with Faith Salie, Public Radio International, March 26 2007.
- Radio discussion about prediction markets on politics and popular culture.

Television: "Bloomberg on the Markets" (avi file)
Bloomberg TV, March 8, 2007.
- Discusses the fact that the Economic Derivatives market better predict economic outcomes than the consensus survey of economists.

Television: "Money and Politics" (avi file)
Bloomberg TV, February 23, 2007.
- Discussion about the use of prediction markets to forecast election results

Video: Prediction Markets: An Introduction
New Horizons in Science Briefing, October 29, 2006.
Hosted by the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing, and Johns Hopkins University.

Television: Super Bowl XXXVIII: Behavioral Finance and Sports Betting (Real Player Required)
CNNfn: "Dolan's Unscripted", January 28, 2003.
- TV interview in which we discuss the link between behavioral finance and sports betting. 
- Includes my successful Super Bowl tip (The Patriots).
- Related radio interview: KNBR-AM 680: "Not Just Sports Show" with John London and Dennis Cruz (real media) 1/21/2003.

Television: Winning on the World Series: When Psychology and Finance Meet Sports Betting
KTVU: "The Ten O'Clock News", November 17, 2003.
-Reviews a pre-World Series seminar studying the intersection between Behavioral Finance and Sports Betting

Op-Eds and Columns

A Death Penalty Puzzle (html) with Cass Sunstein
Washington Post, June 30, 2008
- How the Supreme Court misread our research on the effects of capital punishment.
- Further background info here.

Look at the Benefits of Higher Gas Prices (html) (listen here)
NPR Marketplace Commentary, June 20, 2008
- Argues that recent concerns about high gas prices may be misplaced.

Decoding the Prediction Markets (html) with David Stromberg
Wall Street Journal Online, June 12, 2008
- Compares the election forecasts from a leading econometric model, in order to better understand what is driving prediction market prices.

"A Split Decision With a Clear Winner" (html)
Wall Street Journal Online, May 7, 2008
- Even as Obama and Clinton traded primary victories, the markets awarded the declare Obama the victor and the likely Democratic nominee.

"Clinton's Win Doesn't Move Political Markets" (html) with David Rothschild
Wall Street Journal Online, April 23, 2008
- Interprets the implications of the Democratic Pennsylvania primary.  Our verdict: It's a draw.

"Preparing to Parse a Split Decision" (html)
Wall Street Journal Online, March 4, 2008
- Previewing the Ohio and Texas primaries.

"Handicapping the VP Race" (html)
Wall Street Journal Online, February 12, 2008
- Assesses what prediction markets can tell us about the VP race.

"Report Backing Clemens Chooses Its Facts Carefully" (html) (cool NYT graphic) with Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen and Adi Wyner
New York Times, February 10, 2008
- Finds strong hints in Roger Clemens' career statistics pointing to steroid use.
Leading to follow-up reports of our findings: ESPN (html) (fan comments); My Freakonomics post (and follow-up); MLB.com (html); EPSN (html); NY Daily News (html); Star-Telegram (html); Philadelphia Inquirer (html); AP (html).

"Markets Show Late Surge for Obama" (html)
Wall Street Journal Online, February 5, 2008
- A "Super Tuesday" preview, and viewer's guide.

"Edwards Dropout Offers Boost to Obama" (html) with Eric Zitzewitz
Wall Street Journal Online, January 31, 2008
- Political markets suggest that Edwards supporters will shift to supporting Barack Obama.

"How Rudy's Bet Went Wrong" (html)
Wall Street Journal Online, January 23, 2008
- Prediction markets suggest that Giuliani's problems in the GOP nomination race are due to poor campaigning, rather than a poor strategy.

"Clinton's Historic Surprise" (html)
Wall Street Journal Online, January 9, 2008
- Suggests that Clinton's victory in the New Hampshire primary was more surprising than Truman beating Dewey in 1948.

"Prediction Markets Forsee Turning Point" (html)
Wall Street Journal Online, January 8, 2008
- Assesses evidence of momentum effects subsequent to the Iowa caucuses.

"Using Markets to Handicap Iowa" (html)
Wall Street Journal Online, January 2, 2008
- Provides a market-based baseline against which to assess the Iowa caucus results.

"Best Bet for President: Prediction Markets" (html)
Wall Street Journal Online, December 31, 2007
- How to use prediction markets to track the 2008 presidential race.
- And Dan Drezner disagrees on NPR's marketplace

"Divorced from Reality" (html)
New York Times, September 29, 2007.
- Debunks the widely-held view that divorce rates are rising.  In fact, marital stability has been rising since the 1970s.

"Blow the Whistle on Betting Scandals" (html) (cool NYT graphic)
New York Times, July 27, 2007.
- Suggests a new gambling policy that may minimize corruption and help compulsive gamblers.

"Wisdom of the Masses" with Andrew Leigh
Australian Financial Review, June 8, 2007.
- Provides a digestible introduction to prediction markets, with an Australian emphasis.

"In Basketball, and Life, Race Has Influence" with Joe Price
The Ithaca Journal, May 31, 2007.
- Discusses the broader context of our study on racial bias in NBA refereeing.

"Lies and Statistics: Happiness in Australia" with Andrew Leigh
Australian Financial Review, August 13, 2005.
- Presents evidence that surveys of subjective well-being have consistently ranked Australia to be one of the happiest nations in the world.

"Unemployed Finally Get Chance to Work" (html) with Andrew Leigh
Sydney Morning Herald, June 16, 2005
- Argues that recent proposals to reform unfair dismissal laws in Australia are unlikely to have much of an effect on the overall unemployment rate, although it might reduce the extent of long-term unemployment.  Thus there is an equity case to be made for reforming firing regulations.

"Lies and Statistics: Iraq Election Turnout" (html)
Australian Financial Review, February 25, 2004.
- Comparing the election turnout in Iraq with expectations embodied in Tradesports prices suggests that turnout was "as expected".  Celebratory media reports reflected either insufficient information about actual turnout, or the success of a campaign to dampen expectations.

"Pollsters at Odds with Simple Probabilities" (html) with Andrew Leigh
Australian Financial Review, October 7, 2004.
- Suggests that pollsters take their margin of error seriously, and report their polling results as the likelihood that their candidate win the election.  Applied to the 2004 Australian election, this method suggests that the pollsters understate their true error margins.

"Divorce is Hell, But so is a Bad Marriage" (html) with Rohan Wolfers
Sydney Morning Herald, December 10, 2003.
- Reviews evidence on the effects of no-fault divorce laws on domestic violence and divorce rates, concluding that Australia should resist a "show-fault" system.

"The Furor Over 'Terrorism Futures'", (html) with Eric Zitzewitz
The Washington Post, July 31, 2003.
- Defends the controversial DARPA prediction markets, arguing that prediction markets can provide useful information and help us better understand geopolitical risks.
Also appeared in: The Indian Express, Newark Star-Ledger, The Guardian, Akron Beacon Journal

• A response by Senator Byron Dorgan suggesting we look beyond "academic dogma", (html)
• I also provided further comment in: Barron's, Fox News, Reuters, Red Herring, Science News, Austrian public radio &etc.

"Fasten Your Seatbelts - Its Going to be a Bumpy Ride", (html)
Silicon Valley Biz Ink, July 2003.
- Assesses the likelihood of economic recovery, arguing that current U.S. monetary settings are about right, but that the fiscal stimulus is largely illusory.
- Related commentary on KICU TV: "Silicon Valley Business", November 18, 2003. (Real Player req.)

"Policy Improves by Putting Rhetoric on Trial", (html) with Andrew Leigh
Sydney Morning Herald, March 5, 2003.
- Argues the case for "evidence-based policymaking", and specifically for wider use of policy trials, and high quality data to sustain careful analysis of social and economic programs.
- Response from the Australian Statistician

"Inflation is Critical in RBA Strategy", (html) with Christopher Barrett
Australian Financial Review, January 28 2003.
- We argue that the RBA must police its inflation target symmetrically.  If the public merely believe that the target is "below three percent", then the threat of deflation can be significant; however a symmetric belief that inflation will be "above two percent" provides scope for negative real interest rates.
Also appeared in Online Opinion.

"To banish hatred, we must understand it", (html) with Andrew Leigh
Australian Financial Review, November 1 2002.
- Reviews recent research by Ed Glaeser, arguing that terrorism can sustain economic analysis that paves the way for a mechanism that deals with it's fundamental causes.
Also appeared in Online Opinion.

"Coverage of Bali tragedy shows how Australia misses the bus in America",(html) with Andrew Leigh
Sydney Morning Herald, November 1  2002. 
- If the global war on terror is truly global, surely we care as much about Australians killed in the Bali bombing as Americans killed on September 11. But recent press coverage suggests a certain indifference to non-American deaths.
Also appeared in Online Opinion.

"Train the Politicians First", (html) with Andrew Leigh
The Canberra Times, September 10, 2002.
- Reviews the evidence on parenting classes, and argues that the recent Australian policy proposals are misguided.
Also appeared in Online Opinion.

"Baseball Could Learn a Few Things From Australia", (html) with Andrew Leigh
New York Times, September 1, 2002. 
- Threatened labor disruptions in baseball endangered the post-season, showing the true 
motivations of the players quite starkly.  Against this benchmark, the players involved in the Australian rugby league scandals look good.
Also appeared in Online Opinion.

"Numbers Crunch Salary Cap's Logic", (html) with Andrew Leigh
Sydney Morning Herald, August 26, 2002. 
- Statistics show that the salary cap has failed to level the playing field and is therefore open to a legal challenge.

"Family Friendly?", with Andrew Leigh
The West Australian, June 20 2002. 
- Analyzes the unintended consequences of the Howard government's so-called Baby Bonus.
Only the abridged version appeared in the West Australian.

"Smaller Classes Become Big Issue", (html) with Andrew Leigh
The Australian, June 1 2002. 
- Argues that there is insufficient evidence on the success of smaller class sizes to support across-the-board cuts in student-teacher ratios in Australian schools.
Also appeared in Online Opinion.
Reprinted in: Beyond the Silent Scream: Minorities in Education, Australia

"If that City's Where the Boys Are, Then it has to be Fabulous", (html) with Andrew Leigh, 
Sydney Morning Herald,May 13 2002.  
- Argues that the size of a city's gay population is a reliable indicator of city quality.

This article generated some rather entertaining controversy:
       - Gays Confronted with Poofed Up Research (html), 15 May 2002
       - Sydney is Not the Sum of its Gays (html), 17 May 2002
       - Letters: All That Glitters is Not Necessarily Golden (html), 19 May 2002
       - And an online debate: Ozscrapers forum, 19-23 May 2002

"Recent Downturn Wasn't Your Average Recession", (html) with Rohan Wolfers
Sydney Morning Herald, April 13 2002. 
- Assesses the argument that the US recession is over, and speculates on the new business cycle in both the US and Australia.
Also appeared in the Melbourne Age.
A longer version of this article appeared in Online Opinion.

"US Recession Puts Us to the Test", (html)
Sydney Morning Herald,  November 1 2001. 
- Speculates on the implications for Australia of the US recession.

"Human Touch Emerges From Dry Economic Theory", (html)
Sydney Morning Herald, October 12 2001. 
- Reviews the profound contributions of our three latest Nobel Laureates - Akerlof, Spence and Stiglitz.

"Take the Money and Run... Or Wrestle",(html) with Andrew Leigh
Sydney Morning Herald, May 15 2001. 
- Reviews Duggan and Levitt's findings that Sumo wrestling is fraught with corruption, and discusses the implications for recent cricket scandals.

"A Jobs Miracle That Has Baffled the Experts", with Andrew Leigh
The Canberra Times, March 5 2001. 
- Discusses Katz and Krueger's analysis of the US unemployment miracle.
Also appeared in Online Opinion.

"Howard Dumbs Down the Policy Debate", with Andrew Leigh
Australian Financial Review, July 6 2000. 
- Argues that the market for economic policy advice in Australia needs to be deregulated.
Also appeared in Online Opinion.

"Unfair Admissions Index", with Andrew Leigh
Sydney Morning Herald, December 13 1999.
- Argues that current university admissions procedures are inequitable.

"Abortion's Secret Legacy", with Andrew Leigh
The Melbourne Age, November 11 1999. 
- Reviews Donohue and Levitt's argument that there is a causal link between Roe v. Wade and the recent decline in crime.
Also appeared in Online Opinion.

Blogging

• Early writing for Online Opinion (an Australian site)
• My one week guest blogging for Marginal Revolution (where I learned: blogging is harder than it looks)
• My current gig blogging at Freakonomics

Election Commentary

Election 2008 Columns for Wall Street Journal Online
Related commentary:
- NPR: Here and Now program, March 3, 2008. (Requires real player)

Election 2006 Commentary (US Midterms):
- Business Week, 11/13/2006, "Question of the Week: Economic effects of the Democrats winning Congress"
- Bloomberg, 11/8/2006, "Sick of Polls? Gamblers Bet Democrats Will Take Over House"
- Newsweek,  11/6/2006, "Predicting the Future of Politics"
- Reuters, 11/6/2006, "GOP seen keeping U.S. Senate, online markets say"
- Detroit Free Press, 11/5/2006, "Political Digest"
- Toronto Star, 11/5/2006, "A Week's Worth of Science News: Markets rule OK"
- Wall Street Journal Econoblog, 11/3/2006, "How Much Do Election Shakeups Affect the Nation's Economy?"
- Bloomberg Radio, 11/1/2006, Pre-election interview
- Reuters, 10/27/2006, "Analysis - Going long on the Republicans so far a losing bet"
- Wall Street Journal, 10/26/2006, "Ahead of the Tape: November Surprises"
- The New York Sun, 10/5/2006, "Caught Naked on Election Night" [Hint: It's metaphorical!]

How Much Do Election Shakeups Affect the Nation's Economy? (html)
Wall Street Journal, Econoblog, November 3, 2006.
- Analyzes likely economic and financial consequences of the 2006 midterm congressional elections.

"Lies and Statistics: Betting on Latham" (html) with Andrew Leigh
Australian Financial Review, December 19, 2003.
- Early market moves suggest that the Labor Party pulled the right reign in elevating Mark Latham to the leadership.

Election 2002: Commentary on mid-term US elections
- KRON TV evening news: Election-eve interview with Catherine Heenan (real media) 11/4/2002.
- KGO radio drive-time: Election-eve interview with Rosie Allen (real media) 11/4/2002.
- KRON TV morning news: Election morning interview (live) with Phil Mattier (real media) 11/5/2002.
- KGO TV evening news: Interview with David Louie on economic conditions (real media) 11/5/2002.
(You will need Real Player to view these files.  Download a free copy here.)

"Oil prices may make US voters swing", (html) with Andrew Leigh
The Canberra Times, November 5 2002.
- Report on the likelihood of state governorships changing hands in Election 2002.

"Winner Takes All", (html) with Andrew Leigh
Sydney Morning Herald, September 29 2001. 
- Analyzes the forecasts of three possible tools for predicting the 2001 Australian Federal Election: opinion polls, economic indicators and gambling odds.
A longer version of this article appeared in Online Opinion.